2026 schedule
Idaho State Bengals
2026 season so far
Idaho State is 5-3 against the 122nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.4 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Idaho State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Utah Tech in Week 9. We project Idaho State 34, Utah Tech 20 — Idaho State wins 82% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
VMI Keydets
0-1 · SOS #71
Win 38-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 19.7
Total 55.7
DraftKings
IDST -34.5
Total 53.5
Final Idaho State by 28. VMI beat the spread. 48 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -34.5 · O/U 53.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -14.8 pts (Idaho State view)
ESPN+ ICCU DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - at
Utah State Aggies
0-1 · SOS #38
Win 29-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Utah State by 26.6
Total 59.6
DraftKings
USU -15.5
Total 59.5
Final Idaho State by 12. Idaho State beat the spread. 46 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah State -15 (open Utah State -12.75) · O/U 59.75 (open 63.25) · ML +447.5 / -625 · Utah State 82% no-vig · model vs market +11.6 pts, +14 pct pts (Utah State view)
CBSSN Maverik StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
San Diego Toreros
0-2 · SOS #93
Win 59-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 14.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
IDST -22.5
Total 58.5
Final Idaho State by 42. Idaho State beat the spread. 76 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -22.5 (open Idaho State -25.5) · O/U 58.5 · ML +860 / -1860 · Idaho State 90% no-vig · model vs market -7.6 pts, -7 pct pts (Idaho State view)
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
1-4 · SOS #38
Win 28-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 3.7
Total 63.9
DraftKings
IDST -9.5
Total 61.5
Final Idaho State by 4. Southern Utah beat the spread. 52 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -9.5 (open Idaho State -10.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · ML -339 / +256 · Southern Utah 27% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +14 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCDC)ESPN+ Eccles ColiseumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
4-2 · SOS #16
Loss 31-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 8.9
Total 57.9
DraftKings
IDST -7.5
Total 55.5
Final Northern Arizona by 7. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 69 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -7.5 (open Idaho State -6.5) · O/U 55.5 · ML +229 / -298 · Idaho State 71% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Idaho State view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ ICCU DomePregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-3 · SOS #92
Loss 24-25
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 12.3
Total 60.5
DraftKings
IDST -14.5
Total 63.5
Final Cal Poly by 1. Cal Poly beat the spread. 49 points — under the 63.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -14.5 · O/U 63.5 · ML +408 / -594 · Idaho State 81% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -2 pct pts (Idaho State view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ ICCU DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - at
Weber State Wildcats
5-3 · SOS #73
Loss 20-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 7.3
Total 65.1
DraftKings
IDST -4.5
Total 63.5
Final Weber State by 7. Weber State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 63.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -4.5 (open Idaho State -7) · O/U 63.5 · ML -250 / +195 · Weber State 32% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -1 pct pts (Weber State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOGD)ESPN+ Stewart StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - vs
Portland State Vikings
2-6 · SOS #8
Win 38-8
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 18.4
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
Final Idaho State by 30. 46 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ ICCU DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Utah Tech Trailblazers
1-7 · SOS #17
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 34-20 · 82%
Our number
Idaho State by 14
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 65°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Greater Zion Stadium - vs
Montana State Bobcats
7-1 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 7, 11:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 22-34 · 21%
Our number
Montana State by 12
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Montana Grizzlies
5-3 · SOS #50
Sun, Nov 15, 3:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 28-33 · 35%
Our number
Montana by 5
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington-Grizzly StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Idaho Vandals
3-5 · SOS #7
Sat, Nov 21, 11:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 32-26 · 64%
Our number
Idaho State by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ ICCU DomeExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Idaho State Bengals stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.3
Adj. offense
19.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 33.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.24 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.54 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 149.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 273.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 200.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 181.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.25 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.34 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.23 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.06 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.2% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.9% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 34.9% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 62.9% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 51.5% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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