Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 39.7, Portland State 21.3 at ICCU Dome in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Idaho State wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.4 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Portland State is 2-5, scoring 23.7 and allowing 44 points per game (-20.3 per game). Idaho State is 4-3, scoring 32.7 and allowing 22.6 points per game (+10.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Portland State by 4 and Idaho State by 41 about 80% of the time.
Idaho State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Idaho State by about 16.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Portland State 8, Idaho State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 14.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Portland State 21.3, Idaho State 39.7 | Idaho State 89%right winner | 11.6 | 14.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Portland State 8, Idaho State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Portland State vs Idaho State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Portland State | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.2 | 33.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.7 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 6.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.25 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 162.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.4 | 310.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 265.2 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.5 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 0.33 |
| Stat | Portland State | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 46.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.30 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 72.3 |
| Stat | Portland State | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.0% | 51.5% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.6% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 34.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 28.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.5% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.1% | 40.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Portland State schedule · Idaho State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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