Matchup analysis
Our model projects Montana 33, Idaho State 28 at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Montana wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Idaho State is 5-3 against the 112th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.4 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+12.6 per game). Montana is 5-3 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.8 and allowing 28 points per game (+9.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho State by 17 and Montana by 28 about 80% of the time.
Montana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana by about 3.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Idaho State vs Montana: stat comparison
| Stat | Idaho State | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.4 | 37.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8 | 28.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.24 | 7.16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.54 | 5.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.0 | 190.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.5 | 284.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.6 | 141.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.8 | 271.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 45.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 45.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7% | 9.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 12.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.34 | 3.50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.23 | 4.15 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.5% | 52.2% |
| Passing success rate | 42.2% | 49.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2% | 26.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2% | 31.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9% | 41.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.9% | 54.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.5% | 58.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho State schedule · Montana schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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