Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 33.4, Northern Arizona 24.5 at ICCU Dome in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Idaho State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.8 points and 57.9 combined points.
Northern Arizona is 3-2, scoring 25.6 and allowing 28.2 points per game (-2.6 per game). Idaho State is 4-0, scoring 38.5 and allowing 17 points per game (+21.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Arizona by 14 and Idaho State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Idaho State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Idaho State by about 6.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Arizona 38, Idaho State 31. Northern Arizona won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Arizona / Idaho State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho State -6.5 → Idaho State -7.5 | 55.5 | +229 / -298 |
| DraftKings | Idaho State -6.5 → Idaho State -7.5 | 55.5 | +229 / -298 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho State -9 | 57.9 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Idaho State -7.5 | 55.5 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Idaho State -8 | 56.0 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho State win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho State -8.8 · market Idaho State -7.5 · difference +1.3 pts (Idaho State view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 55.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Idaho State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Arizona 24.5, Idaho State 33.4 | Idaho State 72%wrong winner | 15.8 | 11.1 |
| New formula | Northern Arizona 23.6, Idaho State 33.5 | Idaho State 74%wrong winner | 16.8 | 11.9 |
Final: Northern Arizona 38, Idaho State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Arizona vs Idaho State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.7 | 33.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.08 | 6.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.8 | 162.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6 | 310.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.4 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.3 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.45 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 0.33 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 46.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.39 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 72.3 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 51.5% |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 34.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5% | 28.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 40.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Arizona schedule · Idaho State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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