Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah State 43.1, Idaho State 16.5 at Maverik Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Utah State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.6 points and 59.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Idaho State is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 10 points per game (+28 per game). Utah State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Idaho State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Utah State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 4 and Utah State by 49 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah State by about 24.5. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Idaho State 29, Utah State 17. Idaho State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 38.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho State / Utah State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah State -12.75 → Utah State -15 | 63.25 → 59.75 | +447.5 / -625 |
| DraftKings | Utah State -11.5 → Utah State -15.5 | 64.5 → 59.5 | +470 / -650 |
| Bovada | Utah State -14 → Utah State -14.5 | 62 → 60 | +425 / -600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah State -26.5 | 59.6 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Utah State -15 | 59.8 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Utah State -17 | 59.8 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah State win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Utah State -26.6 · market Utah State -15 · difference +11.6 pts (Utah State view)
- Total
- model 59.6 · market 59.75 · difference -0.1
Model margin is 11.6 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho State 16.5, Utah State 43.1 | Utah State 96%wrong winner | 38.6 | 13.6 |
| New formula | Idaho State 19.8, Utah State 42.7 | Utah State 91%wrong winner | 35.0 | 16.5 |
Final: Idaho State 29, Utah State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho State vs Utah State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0 | 30.9#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 28.7#90 |
| Yards per play | 6.55 | 6.11#47 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 5.80#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.8 | 175.1#62 |
| Net passing yards per game | 310.8 | 228.8#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 184.5#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.4 | 250.6#119 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.69#13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 1.08#65 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.23#51 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33 | 3.23#127 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.05#52 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.01#73 |
| Success rate | 46.8% | 41.4%#86 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 42.5%#79 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 14.5%#19 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 11.7%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 13.8%#34 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 15.4%#126 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.35 | 4.52#18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.81 | 3.69#47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 29#94 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 29#69 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 66.1#69 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.08#36 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.03#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.04#95 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.02#56 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.5% | 42.6%#79 |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 39.6%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 19.2%#92 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.6% | 31.9%#50 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5% | 32.2%#103 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3% | 36.5%#105 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 42.0%#88 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 39.8% | 66.9%#35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.9% | 53.4%#24 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho State schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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