Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 37.7, VMI 18 at ICCU Dome in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Idaho State wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.7 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
VMI has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Idaho State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between VMI by 3 and Idaho State by 42 about 80% of the time.
Idaho State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Idaho State by about 17.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: VMI 10, Idaho State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.3 points and the total by 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (VMI / Idaho State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho State -34.5 | 60.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Idaho State -34.5 | 60.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho State -19.5 | 55.7 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Idaho State -34.5 | 53.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Idaho State -32.5 | 54.2 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho State win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Idaho State -19.7 · market Idaho State -34.5 · difference -14.8 pts (Idaho State view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 53.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 14.8 pts more toward VMI than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | VMI 18.0, Idaho State 37.7 | Idaho State 90%right winner | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| New formula | VMI 12.8, Idaho State 43.5 | Idaho State 96%right winner | 2.7 | 8.3 |
Final: VMI 10, Idaho State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
VMI vs Idaho State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | VMI | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 33.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.6 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 6.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.10 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.3 | 162.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.1 | 310.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 224.3 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.6 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 0.33 |
| Stat | VMI | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 46.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.6% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.32 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.6 | 72.3 |
| Stat | VMI | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.8% | 51.5% |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 34.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 28.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.3% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.4% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5% | 40.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: VMI schedule · Idaho State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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