Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 36.2, Weber State 28.9 at Stewart Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Idaho State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 65 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Idaho State is 4-2, scoring 34.8 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+13 per game). Weber State is 4-3, scoring 37.6 and allowing 36.1 points per game (+1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho State by 30 and Weber State by 15 about 80% of the time.
Weber State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Idaho State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Idaho State 20, Weber State 27. Weber State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 14.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho State / Weber State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho State -7 → Idaho State -4.5 | 63.5 | -250 / +195 |
| DraftKings | Idaho State -7 → Idaho State -4.5 | 63.5 | -250 / +195 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Weber State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho State -7.5 | 65.0 | 32% |
| Market consensus | Idaho State -4.5 | 63.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Idaho State -5 | 63.3 | 37% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Weber State win probability
- model 32% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho State -7.3 · market Idaho State -4.5 · difference -2.8 pts (Weber State view)
- Total
- model 65.0 · market 63.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Idaho State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho State 36.2, Weber State 28.9 | Idaho State 68%wrong winner | 14.3 | 18.0 |
| New formula | Idaho State 35.2, Weber State 28.5 | Idaho State 67%wrong winner | 13.7 | 16.6 |
Final: Idaho State 20, Weber State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho State vs Weber State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 38.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.55 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 6.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.8 | 159.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 310.8 | 182.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 201.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.4 | 233.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 46.8% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 14.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.35 | 1.81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.81 | 2.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 63.7 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.5% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 35.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 20.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.6% | 23.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5% | 25.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3% | 38.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 35.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 39.8% | 27.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.9% | 36.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho State schedule · Weber State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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