Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 36.4, Cal Poly 24.1 at ICCU Dome in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Idaho State wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and 60.5 combined points.
Cal Poly is 3-3, scoring 30.3 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-1 per game). Idaho State is 4-1, scoring 37 and allowing 21.2 points per game (+15.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cal Poly by 10 and Idaho State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Idaho State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Idaho State by about 10.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Cal Poly 25, Idaho State 24. Cal Poly won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cal Poly / Idaho State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho State -14.5 | 63.5 | +408 / -594 |
| DraftKings | Idaho State -14.5 | 63.5 | +408 / -594 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho State -12.5 | 60.5 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Idaho State -14.5 | 63.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Idaho State -14 | 63.1 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho State win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho State -12.3 · market Idaho State -14.5 · difference -2.2 pts (Idaho State view)
- Total
- model 60.5 · market 63.5 · difference -3.0
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Cal Poly than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cal Poly 24.1, Idaho State 36.4 | Idaho State 79%wrong winner | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| New formula | Cal Poly 23.4, Idaho State 35.8 | Idaho State 79%wrong winner | 13.4 | 10.1 |
Final: Cal Poly 25, Idaho State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cal Poly vs Idaho State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Cal Poly | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 33.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.5 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.17 | 6.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.2 | 162.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 263.8 | 310.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.2 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 254.5 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 0.33 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 38.1% | 46.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.1% | 12.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.92 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.29 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8 | 72.3 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Idaho State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.1% | 51.5% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 34.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 28.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.0% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.7% | 40.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cal Poly schedule · Idaho State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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