Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Utah 35.9, Utah Tech 21.5 at Greater Zion Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Southern Utah wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.4 points and 57.4 combined points.
Southern Utah is 1-4, scoring 28.4 and allowing 36.8 points per game (-8.4 per game). Utah Tech is 0-5, scoring 11.4 and allowing 44.8 points per game (-33.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Utah by 37 and Utah Tech by 8 about 80% of the time.
Utah Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern Utah is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Utah 46, Utah Tech 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 21.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Utah / Utah Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Utah -14.5 → Southern Utah -10.5 | 56.5 | -510 / +361 |
| DraftKings | Southern Utah -14.5 → Southern Utah -10.5 | 56.5 | -510 / +361 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Utah -14.5 | 57.4 | 17% |
| Market consensus | Southern Utah -10.5 | 56.5 | 21% |
| Blended projection | Southern Utah -11 | 56.8 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah Tech win probability
- model 17% · market (no-vig) 21% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Utah -14.4 · market Southern Utah -10.5 · difference -3.9 pts (Utah Tech view)
- Total
- model 57.4 · market 56.5 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Southern Utah than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Utah 35.9, Utah Tech 21.5 | Southern Utah 83%right winner | 1.4 | 21.6 |
| New formula | Southern Utah 35.5, Utah Tech 21.2 | Southern Utah 83%right winner | 1.3 | 22.3 |
Final: Southern Utah 46, Utah Tech 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Utah vs Utah Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Utah | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 16.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 29.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.66 | 5.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.6 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.6 | 199.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.2 | 199.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.64 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 2.18 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.36 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 48.5% | 37.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 41.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0% | 8.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 67.2 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 50.8% | 34.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 14.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.4% | 26.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0% | 30.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 39.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0% | 44.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Utah schedule · Utah Tech schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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