2026 schedule
Utah Tech Trailblazers
2026 season so far
Utah Tech is 1-7 against the 22nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.4 and allowing 40.8 points per game (-22.4 per game).
Utah Tech plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Idaho State in Week 9. We project Utah Tech 20, Idaho State 34 — Utah Tech wins 18% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Montana State Bobcats
1-0 · SOS #53
Loss 0-54
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 17.3
Total 50.1
DraftKings
MTST -32.5
Total 57.5
Final Montana State by 54. Montana State beat the spread. 54 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana State -32.5 (open Montana State -31.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · model vs market +15.2 pts (Utah Tech view)
ESPN+ Greater Zion StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - at
#14 BYU Cougars
1-0 · SOS #38
Loss 7-63
Week 1
Our number· pregame
BYU by 44.6
Total 47.8
DraftKings
BYU -50.5
Total 61.5
Final BYU by 56. BYU beat the spread. 70 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -50 (open BYU -49.5) · O/U 61.25 (open 57.75) · model vs market -5.4 pts (BYU view)
ESPN+ LaVell Edwards StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
Montana Grizzlies
3-0 · SOS #58
Loss 14-35
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Montana by 20.2
Total 51.6
DraftKings
MONT -35.5
Total 56.5
Final Montana by 21. Utah Tech beat the spread. 49 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -37 (open Montana -38.5) · O/U 56.5 · model vs market -16.8 pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3-1 · SOS #15
Loss 23-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 6.2
Total 55.8
DraftKings
NAU -16.5
Total 51.5
Final Northern Arizona by 12. Utah Tech beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -16.5 (open Northern Arizona -21.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML -1140 / +640 · Utah Tech 13% no-vig · model vs market +10.3 pts, +21 pct pts (Utah Tech view)
ESPN+ Greater Zion Stadium - at
Northern Colorado Bears
2-3 · SOS #65
Loss 13-37
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Northern Colorado by 7.9
Total 48.7
DraftKings
UNCO -7.5
Total 49.5
Final Northern Colorado by 24. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 50 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Colorado -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +292 / -395 · Northern Colorado 76% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -6 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 75°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGXY)ESPN+ Nottingham FieldPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
2-4 · SOS #47
Loss 33-46
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Southern Utah by 14.4
Total 57.4
DraftKings
SUU -10.5
Total 56.5
Final Southern Utah by 13. Southern Utah beat the spread. 79 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Utah -10.5 (open Southern Utah -14.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -510 / +361 · Utah Tech 21% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -3 pct pts (Utah Tech view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGU)ESPN+ Greater Zion StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - at
Portland State Vikings
2-4 · SOS #5
Loss 14-30
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Portland State by 6.7
Total 63.3
DraftKings
PRST -2.5
Total 60.5
Final Portland State by 16. Portland State beat the spread. 44 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Portland State -2.5 (open Portland State -9.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 61.5) · ML +136 / -170 · Portland State 60% no-vig · model vs market +4.2 pts, +7 pct pts (Portland State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 59°F, Wind 6 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHIO)ESPN+ Hillsboro StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-5 · SOS #103
Win 43-26
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 14.5
Total 54.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah Tech by 17. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Light rain, 73°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSBP)ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - vs
Idaho State Bengals
5-3 · SOS #112
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 20-34 · 18%
Our number
Idaho State by 14
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 65°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Greater Zion Stadium - at
UC Davis Aggies
5-3 · SOS #90
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 20-37 · 13%
Our number
UC Davis by 17
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UC Davis Health StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games - vs
Eastern Washington Eagles
2-6 · SOS #13
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-31 · 42%
Our number
Eastern Washington by 3
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Greater Zion StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - at
Weber State Wildcats
5-4 · SOS #67
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 24-36 · 22%
Our number
Weber State by 12
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Utah Tech Trailblazers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-30.7
Adj. offense
11.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
42.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 40.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.42 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.03 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 125.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 232.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 211.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 238.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.28 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.98 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.09 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 23.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 33.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 51.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 70.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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