Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana 35.9, Utah Tech 15.7 at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Montana wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.2 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Utah Tech is 0-2, scoring 3.5 and allowing 58.5 points per game (-55 per game). Montana is 2-0, scoring 36.5 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+21 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah Tech by 2 and Montana by 43 about 80% of the time.
Montana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana by about 18.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Utah Tech 14, Montana 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 2.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah Tech / Montana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana -38.5 → Montana -37 | 56.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Montana -38.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Montana -38.5 → Montana -35.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana -20 | 51.5 | 91% |
| Market consensus | Montana -37 | 56.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Montana -34.5 | 56.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Montana -20.2 · market Montana -37 · difference -16.8 pts (Montana view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 56.5 · difference -5.0
Model margin is 16.8 pts more toward Utah Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah Tech 15.7, Montana 35.9 | Montana 91%right winner | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| New formula | Utah Tech 12.8, Montana 43.5 | Montana 97%right winner | 9.6 | 7.3 |
Final: Utah Tech 14, Montana 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah Tech vs Montana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah Tech | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0 | 41.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3 | 25.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 6.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 6.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.8 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.5 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8 | 149.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 264.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.4% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.57 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.2 | 69.6 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 43.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 48.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.7% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah Tech schedule · Montana schedule · all Week 2 projections
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