Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cal Poly 34.5, Utah Tech 20 at Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Cal Poly wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 54.4 combined points.
Utah Tech is 0-7, scoring 14.9 and allowing 42.9 points per game (-28 per game). Cal Poly is 4-4, scoring 28.1 and allowing 30 points per game (-1.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah Tech by 8 and Cal Poly by 37 about 80% of the time.
Cal Poly gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cal Poly by about 12.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Utah Tech 43, Cal Poly 26. Utah Tech won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 31.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah Tech 20.0, Cal Poly 34.5 | Cal Poly 83%wrong winner | 31.5 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Utah Tech 43, Cal Poly 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah Tech vs Cal Poly: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah Tech | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3 | 31.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 6.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.8 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.5 | 263.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8 | 185.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 254.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.4% | 38.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1% | 44.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 13.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 10.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.57 | 1.92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 2.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.2 | 65.8 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 36.1% |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 28.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 36.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.7% | 25.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 38.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah Tech schedule · Cal Poly schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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