Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected BYU 46.2, Utah Tech 1.6 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: BYU wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 44.6 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Utah Tech is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 54 points per game (-54 per game). BYU has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Utah Tech plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why BYU's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 22 and BYU by 67 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 42.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Utah Tech 7, BYU 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.4 points and the total by 22.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah Tech / BYU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -49.5 → BYU -50 | 57.75 → 61.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | BYU -47.5 → BYU -50.5 | 54.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | BYU -51.5 → BYU -49.5 | 61 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | BYU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -44.5 | 47.7 | 100% |
| Market consensus | BYU -50 | 61.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | BYU -49.5 | 60.4 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- BYU win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model BYU -44.6 · market BYU -50 · difference -5.4 pts (BYU view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 61.25 · difference -13.5
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Utah Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah Tech 1.6, BYU 46.2 | BYU 100%right winner | 11.4 | 22.3 |
| New formula | Utah Tech -5.2, BYU 57.4 | BYU 100%right winner | 6.6 | 17.8 |
Final: Utah Tech 7, BYU 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah Tech vs BYU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah Tech | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0 | 31.4#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3 | 19.1#19 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 6.16#43 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.42#40 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.8 | 188.1#40 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.5 | 222.0#75 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8 | 137.4#29 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 213.6#61 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.71#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 1.50#19 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.07#64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.07#11 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.10#32 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.03#46 |
| Success rate | 37.4% | 45.4%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1% | 39.7%#46 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 13.8%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 12.2%#66 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 12.4%#71 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 11.4%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.57 | 4.18#40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.24#15 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#35 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#87 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.2 | 66.6#62 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.12#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.08#52 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.01#59 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.04#46 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 47.6%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 42.9%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 15.0%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 29.8%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 26.7%#23 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 43.3%#47 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3% | 34.0%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.7% | 62.7%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 41.5%#6 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah Tech schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 1 projections
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