Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Portland State 35, Utah Tech 28.3 at Hillsboro Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Portland State wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 63.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Utah Tech is 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 45 points per game (-30 per game). Portland State is 1-4, scoring 22.2 and allowing 51.2 points per game (-29 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah Tech by 16 and Portland State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Portland State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Portland State by about 4.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Utah Tech 14, Portland State 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.3 points and the total by 19.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah Tech / Portland State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Portland State -9.5 → Portland State -2.5 | 61.5 → 60.5 | +136 / -170 |
| DraftKings | Portland State -9.5 → Portland State -2.5 | 61.5 → 60.5 | +136 / -170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Portland State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Portland State -6.5 | 63.3 | 67% |
| Market consensus | Portland State -2.5 | 60.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Portland State -3 | 60.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Portland State win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Portland State -6.7 · market Portland State -2.5 · difference +4.2 pts (Portland State view)
- Total
- model 63.3 · market 60.5 · difference +2.8
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward Portland State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah Tech 28.3, Portland State 35.0 | Portland State 67%right winner | 9.3 | 19.3 |
| New formula | Utah Tech 28.0, Portland State 34.0 | Portland State 65%right winner | 10.0 | 18.0 |
Final: Utah Tech 14, Portland State 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah Tech vs Portland State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah Tech | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0 | 16.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3 | 42.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 7.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.8 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.5 | 219.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.8 | 265.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 195.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| Success rate | 37.4% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1% | 47.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 16.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.57 | 0.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 2.30 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.2 | 64.1 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 36.0% |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 31.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 35.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.3% | 47.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.7% | 13.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 33.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah Tech schedule · Portland State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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