Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana State 33.7, Utah Tech 16.4 at Greater Zion Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.3 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Montana State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Utah Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana State by 40 and Utah Tech by 5 about 80% of the time.
Utah Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Montana State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Montana State 54, Utah Tech 0. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 36.7 points and the total by 3.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana State / Utah Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -31.5 → Montana State -32.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Montana State -31.5 → Montana State -32.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana State -17.5 | 50.1 | 13% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -32.5 | 57.5 | 1% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -30 | 57.3 | 2% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah Tech win probability
- model 13% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Montana State -17.3 · market Montana State -32.5 · difference +15.2 pts (Utah Tech view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 57.5 · difference -7.4
Model margin is 15.2 pts more toward Utah Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana State 33.7, Utah Tech 16.4 | Montana State 87%right winner | 36.7 | 3.9 |
| New formula | Montana State 37.6, Utah Tech 15.8 | Montana State 90%right winner | 32.2 | 0.6 |
Final: Montana State 54, Utah Tech 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana State vs Utah Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Montana State | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.9 | 16.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0 | 29.3 |
| Yards per play | 7.07 | 5.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.4 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.0 | 199.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.9 | 199.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.3 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.47 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Montana State | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 51.7% | 37.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 41.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 8.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 11.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.12 | 2.57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.65 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 67.2 |
| Stat | Montana State | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 52.9% | 34.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1% | 14.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9% | 26.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1% | 30.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 39.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7% | 44.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.7% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 28.2% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana State schedule · Utah Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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