Matchup analysis
Our model projects UC Davis 37, Utah Tech 20 at UC Davis Health Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: UC Davis wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.1 points and 56.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Utah Tech is 1-7 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.4 and allowing 40.8 points per game (-22.4 per game). UC Davis is 5-3 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32 and allowing 31 points per game (+1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah Tech by 5 and UC Davis by 40 about 80% of the time.
UC Davis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UC Davis by about 15. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Utah Tech vs UC Davis: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah Tech | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.4 | 32.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 40.8 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 6.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.03 | 6.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.5 | 173.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.0 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 211.8 | 176.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.4 | 267.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 38.6% | 42.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.28 | 3.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.98 | 3.45 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Utah Tech | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6% | 47.5% |
| Passing success rate | 33.9% | 41.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6% | 30.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 31.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 38.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.6% | 41.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.5% | 53.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.0% | 56.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah Tech schedule · UC Davis schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.