Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eastern Washington 31, Utah Tech 28 at Greater Zion Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Eastern Washington wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 59.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Eastern Washington is 2-6 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 38.1 points per game (-11.1 per game). Utah Tech is 1-7 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.4 and allowing 40.8 points per game (-22.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Washington by 26 and Utah Tech by 19 about 80% of the time.
Utah Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Eastern Washington is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Eastern Washington vs Utah Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0 | 18.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.1 | 40.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.51 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.52 | 7.03 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.4 | 125.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 283.4 | 232.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 227.6 | 211.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 245.9 | 238.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.38 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 41.2% | 38.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 9.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 13.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.51 | 3.28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 3.98 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 78.4 | 66.0 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.9% | 46.6% |
| Passing success rate | 44.2% | 33.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.5% | 23.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4% | 37.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.7% | 56.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.8% | 70.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Washington schedule · Utah Tech schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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