Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Arizona 31, Utah Tech 24.8 at Greater Zion Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Northern Arizona wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northern Arizona is 2-1, scoring 26.3 and allowing 30 points per game (-3.7 per game). Utah Tech is 0-3, scoring 7 and allowing 50.7 points per game (-43.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Arizona by 29 and Utah Tech by 16 about 80% of the time.
Utah Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Northern Arizona is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Arizona 35, Utah Tech 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 2.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Arizona / Utah Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Arizona -21.5 → Northern Arizona -16.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -1140 / +640 |
| DraftKings | Northern Arizona -21.5 → Northern Arizona -16.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -1140 / +640 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Arizona -6 | 55.8 | 34% |
| Market consensus | Northern Arizona -16.5 | 51.5 | 13% |
| Blended projection | Northern Arizona -15 | 52.4 | 16% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah Tech win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 13% · difference +21 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Arizona -6.2 · market Northern Arizona -16.5 · difference +10.3 pts (Utah Tech view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 51.5 · difference +4.3
Model margin is 10.3 pts more toward Utah Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Arizona 31.0, Utah Tech 24.8 | Northern Arizona 66%right winner | 5.8 | 2.2 |
| New formula | Northern Arizona 32.5, Utah Tech 22.8 | Northern Arizona 74%right winner | 2.2 | 2.7 |
Final: Northern Arizona 35, Utah Tech 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Arizona vs Utah Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.7 | 16.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3 | 29.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.08 | 5.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.8 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6 | 199.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.4 | 199.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.3 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.45 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 37.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 41.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 8.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7% | 11.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97 | 2.57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.39 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Utah Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 34.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0% | 14.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 26.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5% | 30.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9% | 39.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 44.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Arizona schedule · Utah Tech schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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