Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Utah 35, Weber State 26.2 at Eccles Coliseum in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Southern Utah wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.8 points and 61.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Weber State is 1-0, scoring 30 and allowing 29 points per game (+1 per game). Southern Utah is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 28 points per game (-7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Weber State by 14 and Southern Utah by 31 about 80% of the time.
Southern Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern Utah by about 6.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Weber State 42, Southern Utah 47. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.8 points and the total by 27.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Weber State / Southern Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Utah -14.5 | 58.5 | +520 / -820 |
| DraftKings | Southern Utah -14.5 | 58.5 | +520 / -820 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Utah -9 | 61.2 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Southern Utah -14.5 | 58.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | Southern Utah -13.5 | 58.8 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Utah win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Utah -8.8 · market Southern Utah -14.5 · difference -5.7 pts (Southern Utah view)
- Total
- model 61.2 · market 58.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 5.7 pts more toward Weber State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Weber State 26.2, Southern Utah 35.0 | Southern Utah 72%right winner | 3.8 | 27.8 |
| New formula | Weber State 20.6, Southern Utah 38.8 | Southern Utah 86%right winner | 13.2 | 29.5 |
Final: Weber State 42, Southern Utah 47. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Weber State vs Southern Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Weber State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.3 | 29.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 6.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.56 | 6.35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.7 | 219.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.7 | 219.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 199.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.8 | 200.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 0.64 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 2.36 |
| Stat | Weber State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 48.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 15.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 12.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.81 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7 | 65.9 |
| Stat | Weber State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 47.9% |
| Passing success rate | 35.0% | 50.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.8% | 37.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3% | 29.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.4% | 45.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.9% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.9% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Weber State schedule · Southern Utah schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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