Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana 37.7, Southern Utah 27.6 at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Montana wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 65.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Southern Utah has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Montana has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Utah by 12 and Montana by 33 about 80% of the time.
Montana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana by about 8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Utah 21, Montana 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 16.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Utah / Montana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana -16.5 → Montana -15.5 | 58.5 → 59.5 | +620 / -1080 |
| DraftKings | Montana -16.5 → Montana -15.5 | 58.5 → 59.5 | +620 / -1080 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana -10 | 65.2 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Montana -15.5 | 59.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Montana -14.5 | 59.9 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Montana -10.1 · market Montana -15.5 · difference -5.4 pts (Montana view)
- Total
- model 65.2 · market 59.5 · difference +5.7
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Southern Utah than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Utah 27.6, Montana 37.7 | Montana 75%right winner | 3.1 | 16.2 |
| New formula | Southern Utah 24.2, Montana 38.0 | Montana 79%right winner | 6.8 | 13.2 |
Final: Southern Utah 21, Montana 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Utah vs Montana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Utah | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 41.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 25.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.66 | 6.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35 | 6.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.6 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.6 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.2 | 149.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0 | 264.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 2.18 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.36 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 48.5% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 69.6 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9% | 43.3% |
| Passing success rate | 50.8% | 48.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.4% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Utah schedule · Montana schedule · all Week 1 projections
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