Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 33.1, Southern Utah 32.2 at Eccles Coliseum in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: UC Davis wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 65.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
UC Davis is 4-2, scoring 34.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+0.3 per game). Southern Utah is 2-4, scoring 31.3 and allowing 36.2 points per game (-4.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UC Davis by 23 and Southern Utah by 22 about 80% of the time.
Southern Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UC Davis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UC Davis 17, Southern Utah 38. Southern Utah won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UC Davis / Southern Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UC Davis -5.5 → UC Davis -4.5 | 64.5 → 65.5 | -196 / +155 |
| DraftKings | UC Davis -5.5 → UC Davis -4.5 | 64.5 → 65.5 | -196 / +155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UC Davis -1 | 65.3 | 48% |
| Market consensus | UC Davis -4.5 | 65.5 | 37% |
| Blended projection | UC Davis -4 | 65.1 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Utah win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model UC Davis -0.9 · market UC Davis -4.5 · difference +3.6 pts (Southern Utah view)
- Total
- model 65.3 · market 65.5 · difference -0.2
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Southern Utah than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UC Davis 33.1, Southern Utah 32.2 | UC Davis 52%wrong winner | 21.9 | 10.3 |
| New formula | UC Davis 31.9, Southern Utah 31.8 | UC Davis 50%wrong winner | 21.1 | 8.7 |
Final: UC Davis 17, Southern Utah 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UC Davis vs Southern Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UC Davis | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 29.6 |
| Yards per play | 7.30 | 6.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 6.35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.6 | 219.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.2 | 219.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.9 | 199.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.5 | 200.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31 | 0.64 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 2.36 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 49.2% | 48.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.77 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 65.9 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.3% | 47.9% |
| Passing success rate | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 37.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8% | 29.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 45.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.5% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UC Davis schedule · Southern Utah schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.