Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San Diego State 31, Colorado State 30.7 at Canvas Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: San Diego State wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
San Diego State is 3-4, scoring 23.3 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-10 per game). Colorado State is 2-4, scoring 35.7 and allowing 43.2 points per game (-7.5 per game).
San Diego State's below-average offense (97th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado State's struggling defense (136th); that mismatch is where most of San Diego State's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's below-average defense (113th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego State by 23 and Colorado State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. San Diego State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: San Diego State 49, Colorado State 56. Colorado State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego State / Colorado State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego State -1.5 | 57.5 | -111 / -110 |
| Opening line | San Diego State -1.5 | 59.5 | -122 / +102 |
| DraftKings | San Diego State -1.5 | 57.5 | -110 / -110 |
| FanDuel | San Diego State -1.5 | 57.5 | -111 / -108 |
| BetRivers | Colorado State -1.5 | 58.5 | -106 / -115 |
| BetMGM | San Diego State -1 | 57.5 | -112 / -105 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego State -0.5 | 61.7 | 49% |
| Market consensus | San Diego State -1.5 | 57.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | San Diego State -1.5 | 58.0 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado State win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model San Diego State -0.3 · market San Diego State -1.5 · difference +1.2 pts (Colorado State view)
- Total
- model 61.7 · market 57.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Colorado State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego State 31.0, Colorado State 30.7 | San Diego State 51%wrong winner | 7.3 | 43.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: San Diego State 49, Colorado State 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego State vs Colorado State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4#77 | 18.5#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4#6 | 30.8#114 |
| Yards per play | 5.89#67 | 5.44#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75#7 | 6.42#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.7#15 | 126.6#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.8#119 | 214.2#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.8#46 | 210.5#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.2#11 | 222.1#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.85#36 | 1.42#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#47 | 1.00#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#35 | 1.33#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.31#23 | 2.67#119 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#81 | -0.03#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#5 | +0.11#124 |
| Success rate | 43.4%#55 | 39.5%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2%#10 | 45.6%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#69 | 10.2%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#14 | 14.5%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#63 | 8.2%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#33 | 12.9%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#98 | 3.82#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94#8 | 4.36#118 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#18 | own 27#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#6 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#89 | 62.6#112 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#37 | +0.03#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09#109 | -0.08#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#47 | +0.08#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.31#3 | +0.15#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#36 | 42.6%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8%#119 | 37.0%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#26 | 18.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.5%#135 | 27.0%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.9%#8 | 34.4%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1%#129 | 35.0%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.1%#20 | 47.7%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2%#61 | 73.3%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.0%#12 | 69.8%#123 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego State schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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