Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon State 31.1, Colorado State 27.9 at Canvas Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Oregon State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 59 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Oregon State is 2-2, scoring 32.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+9.3 per game). Colorado State is 2-2, scoring 40.3 and allowing 34.3 points per game (+6 per game).
Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado State's struggling defense (119th); that mismatch is where most of Oregon State's projected points come from. Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense) meets Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon State by 26 and Colorado State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.8 points and the total by 23.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon State / Colorado State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon State -4 → Oregon State -7 | 60.25 → 61.5 | -234 / +192.5 |
| Bovada | Oregon State -4.5 → Oregon State -7 | 61 → 62.5 | -210 / +175 |
| DraftKings | Oregon State -3.5 → Oregon State -7 | 59.5 → 60.5 | -258 / +210 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon State -3 | 59.0 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Oregon State -7 | 61.5 | 33% |
| Blended projection | Oregon State -6.5 | 61.3 | 33% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado State win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon State -3.2 · market Oregon State -7 · difference +3.8 pts (Colorado State view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 61.5 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Colorado State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oregon State 31.1, Colorado State 27.9 | Oregon State 58%right winner | 26.8 | 23.0 |
| New formula | Oregon State 31.7, Colorado State 28.1 | Oregon State 59%right winner | 26.4 | 22.1 |
Final: Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oregon State vs Colorado State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Oregon State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#62 | 40.3#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#70 | 34.3#129 |
| Yards per play | 6.82#37 | 6.90#30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21#55 | 7.72#137 |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.8#135 | 178.3#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 352.0#3 | 301.0#20 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.8#91 | 240.3#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.3#74 | 232.5#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#43 | 0.75#63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#42 | 2.50#2 |
| Sacks per game | 3.75#6 | 1.50#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#62 | 0.50#5 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#31 | +0.25#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#70 | +0.23#132 |
| Success rate | 42.9%#75 | 44.3%#60 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1%#57 | 47.7%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3%#16 | 11.4%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#24 | 16.4%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#82 | 16.4%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#62 | 10.1%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.69#32 | 5.03#16 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#66 | 4.30#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#131 | own 31#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#98 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3#57 | 69.5#38 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#113 | +0.18#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#29 | +0.29#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#76 | +0.27#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#74 | +0.17#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0%#107 | 43.6%#80 |
| Passing success rate | 44.2%#62 | 44.9%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.8%#8 | 19.5%#104 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9%#61 | 38.8%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#77 | 32.1%#94 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.0%#109 | 45.9%#45 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#79 | 42.6%#103 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#22 | 75.0%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.7%#30 | 64.7%#93 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon State schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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