Matchup analysis
Our model projects Fresno State 36, Colorado State 25 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Fresno State wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 61.6 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Colorado State is 3-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game). Fresno State is 4-3 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game).
Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) against Colorado State's struggling defense (136th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 11 and Fresno State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Fresno State by about 9.2. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colorado State vs Fresno State: stat comparison
| Stat | Colorado State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6#12 | 27.6#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0#138 | 20.9#44 |
| Yards per play | 6.88#18 | 5.87#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.40#138 | 6.01#94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 187.1#48 | 149.7#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.4#11 | 204.4#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 275.1#138 | 183.7#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.0#137 | 211.0#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#48 | 0.43#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.86#5 | 1.43#18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#122 | 2.00#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#3 | 1.86#74 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30#3 | +0.09#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.34#138 | +0.02#61 |
| Success rate | 48.1%#23 | 42.4%#74 |
| Success rate allowed | 54.8%#138 | 41.4%#73 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#62 | 13.5%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 18.6%#137 | 12.2%#82 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#115 | 15.4%#34 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#12 | 13.1%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.85#16 | 4.04#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.15#136 | 3.06#11 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#8 | own 33#10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 24#2 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#33 | 60.3#119 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.23#5 | +0.03#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37#5 | +0.15#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#137 | +0.04#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#137 | +0.01#51 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.2%#18 | 39.1%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 47.2%#31 | 44.4%#51 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#65 | 22.9%#135 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#8 | 35.6%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.4%#136 | 29.6%#68 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.5%#26 | 36.1%#108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6%#137 | 36.7%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#29 | 56.3%#99 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.2%#126 | 46.2%#18 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado State schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.