Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colorado State 31.6, BYU 27.4 at Canvas Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Colorado State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
BYU (No. 11) is 2-0, scoring 45.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+33.5 per game). Colorado State is 2-0, scoring 46.5 and allowing 18.5 points per game (+28 per game).
BYU's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado State's below-average defense (104th); that mismatch is where most of BYU's projected points come from. Expect Colorado State to find it hard going: BYU's strong defense (18th) outranks Colorado State's below-average offense (91st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 18 and Colorado State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colorado State by about 2.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: BYU 41, Colorado State 23. BYU won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (BYU / Colorado State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -19.5 → BYU -17.5 | 52.25 → 54.25 | -1050 / +650 |
| Bovada | BYU -18 → BYU -17.5 | 52 → 54 | -1100 / +650 |
| DraftKings | BYU -21 → BYU -17.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | -1000 / +650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colorado State -4 | 58.9 | 61% |
| Market consensus | BYU -17.5 | 54.3 | 13% |
| Blended projection | BYU -14 | 55.0 | 17% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado State win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 13% · difference +48 pts
- Margin
- model Colorado State -4.2 · market BYU -17.5 · difference +21.7 pts (Colorado State view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 54.25 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 21.7 pts more toward Colorado State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | BYU 27.4, Colorado State 31.6 | Colorado State 61%wrong winner | 22.2 | 5.1 |
| New formula | BYU 36.7, Colorado State 20.0 | BYU 85%right winner | 1.3 | 7.3 |
Final: BYU 41, Colorado State 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
BYU vs Colorado State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | BYU | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.5#26 | 46.5#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#26 | 18.5#61 |
| Yards per play | 7.15#33 | 7.90#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.74#43 | 6.50#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 235.5#27 | 230.0#32 |
| Net passing yards per game | 207.5#86 | 307.0#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.5#17 | 194.0#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 188.0#60 | 180.0#57 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#4 | 0.50#50 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#7 | 4.00#1 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#60 | 2.50#44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#39 | 0.50#22 |
| Stat | BYU | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#57 | +0.09#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#56 | +0.06#89 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#35 | 43.2%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#61 | 42.1%#96 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#46 | 11.6%#96 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#77 | 14.7%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#58 | 16.0%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#46 | 13.4%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#59 | 3.96#87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.93#76 | 3.92#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#28 | own 35#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#44 | own 24#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#92 | 68.0#51 |
| Stat | BYU | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#43 | +0.04#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#70 | +0.14#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#85 | +0.16#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#52 | -0.06#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 59.6%#10 | 48.2%#50 |
| Passing success rate | 54.2%#21 | 50.8%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#39 | 21.4%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4%#90 | 34.3%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.4%#108 | 32.4%#101 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 68.2%#5 | 50.0%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8%#112 | 27.3%#27 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#45 | 56.9%#103 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.6%#77 | 58.4%#68 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: BYU schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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