Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colorado State 36, TBD 30 at Canvas Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Colorado State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 65.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Colorado State is 3-4 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) against Colorado State's struggling defense (136th). Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TBD by 16 and Colorado State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colorado State by about 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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More: TBD schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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