Matchup analysis
Our model projects Boise State 45, Colorado State 23 at Canvas Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Boise State wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.9 points and 67.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Boise State (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game). Colorado State is 3-4 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) against Colorado State's struggling defense (136th). Boise State's strong defense (27th) should limit Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 44 and Colorado State by 1 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Boise State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Boise State vs Colorado State: stat comparison
| Stat | Boise State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4#37 | 38.6#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6#39 | 44.0#138 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#40 | 6.88#18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#117 | 8.40#138 |
| Rushing yards per game | 242.0#8 | 187.1#48 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.9#92 | 289.4#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.3#18 | 275.1#138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.3#115 | 289.0#137 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#2 | 0.71#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#76 | 1.86#5 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#32 | 1.14#122 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#12 | 0.43#3 |
| Stat | Boise State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#20 | +0.30#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#72 | +0.34#138 |
| Success rate | 47.3%#29 | 48.1%#23 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.0%#25 | 54.8%#138 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#87 | 13.0%#62 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#97 | 18.6%#137 |
| Havoc rate | 16.7%#16 | 12.0%#115 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.2%#2 | 10.0%#12 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.78#23 | 4.85#16 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.44#37 | 5.15#136 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#137 | own 34#8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#76 | own 31#108 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.6#29 | 69.3#33 |
| Stat | Boise State | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#18 | +0.23#5 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#29 | +0.37#5 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#60 | +0.32#137 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#84 | +0.35#137 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.2%#29 | 49.2%#18 |
| Passing success rate | 45.9%#37 | 47.2%#31 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.0%#8 | 16.7%#65 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.6%#11 | 41.7%#8 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#84 | 40.4%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#18 | 47.5%#26 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.1%#6 | 52.6%#137 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.0%#64 | 71.4%#29 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.0%#46 | 72.2%#126 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boise State schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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