Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas State 41.2, Colorado State 29 at UFCU Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Texas State wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.2 points and 70.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Colorado State is 2-3, scoring 37.4 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-1.2 per game). Texas State is 2-3, scoring 34.8 and allowing 33.2 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Texas State's below-average defense (108th); that mismatch is where most of Colorado State's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Texas State's strong offense (23rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) against Colorado State's struggling defense (131st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 10 and Texas State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas State by about 10.1. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Colorado State 27, Texas State 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.8 points and the total by 22.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado State / Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -12.75 → Texas State -15.25 | 67.5 → 69.75 | +432.5 / -600 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -12.5 → Texas State -15.5 | 67.5 → 69.5 | +490 / -675 |
| Bovada | Texas State -13 → Texas State -15 | 67.5 → 70 | +375 / -525 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas State -12 | 70.2 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -15.5 | 69.8 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -15 | 69.0 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas State win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Texas State -12.2 · market Texas State -15.25 · difference -3.1 pts (Texas State view)
- Total
- model 70.2 · market 69.75 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Colorado State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado State 29.0, Texas State 41.2 | Texas State 79%right winner | 26.8 | 22.8 |
| New formula | Colorado State 32.1, Texas State 44.6 | Texas State 79%right winner | 26.5 | 16.3 |
Final: Colorado State 27, Texas State 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado State vs Texas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#27 | 34.8#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6#133 | 33.2#126 |
| Yards per play | 6.88#21 | 7.27#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.02#138 | 5.82#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.0#51 | 271.0#5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 283.4#19 | 285.6#17 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 243.8#136 | 128.6#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.0#133 | 300.8#138 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#54 | 1.20#113 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.20#3 | 0.80#89 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#107 | 1.00#126 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.40#4 | 1.20#39 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.25#8 | +0.25#9 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25#135 | +0.18#120 |
| Success rate | 46.0%#46 | 49.8%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.7%#138 | 45.9%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#87 | 15.1%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.4%#133 | 12.7%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#86 | 13.7%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#30 | 10.5%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.48#44 | 3.63#108 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.66#122 | 4.24#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#6 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8#38 | 76.6#4 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#10 | +0.16#32 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#26 | +0.38#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24#135 | -0.09#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#124 | +0.35#136 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#41 | 47.1%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#45 | 53.6%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2%#102 | 12.6%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.7%#12 | 50.6%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.5%#127 | 34.3%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.3%#35 | 57.5%#5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0%#134 | 42.1%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#69 | 52.2%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#105 | 68.2%#109 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado State schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.