Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UTSA 36.4, Rice 22.2 at First Community Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: UTSA wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.2 points and 58.6 combined points.
UTSA is 3-1, scoring 35.3 and allowing 29.3 points per game (+6 per game). Rice is 1-3, scoring 19 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: UTSA's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) against Rice's below-average defense (111th). UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st) should limit Rice's struggling offense (121st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTSA by 37 and Rice by 8 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UTSA is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UTSA 16, Rice 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.2 points and the total by 28.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTSA / Rice) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UTSA -11.75 → UTSA -12 | 53.5 → 56.25 | -457.5 / +345 |
| DraftKings | UTSA -12.5 → UTSA -11.5 | 52.5 → 56.5 | -500 / +380 |
| Bovada | UTSA -11 → UTSA -12.5 | 54.5 → 56 | -415 / +310 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rice win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UTSA -14 | 58.6 | 18% |
| Market consensus | UTSA -12 | 56.3 | 22% |
| Blended projection | UTSA -12.5 | 56.7 | 20% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rice win probability
- model 18% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model UTSA -14.2 · market UTSA -12 · difference -2.2 pts (Rice view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 56.25 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward UTSA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTSA 36.4, Rice 22.2 | UTSA 82%right winner | 12.2 | 28.6 |
| New formula | UTSA 35.2, Rice 22.4 | UTSA 80%right winner | 10.8 | 27.6 |
Final: UTSA 16, Rice 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTSA vs Rice: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UTSA | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.3#45 | 19.0#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.3#112 | 30.3#116 |
| Yards per play | 6.44#60 | 5.77#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#100 | 6.11#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.8#65 | 273.5#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.8#69 | 77.3#137 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.5#131 | 189.0#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 262.5#126 | 197.5#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#18 | 0.50#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#38 | 0.25#129 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75#132 | 1.25#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#6 | 1.00#31 |
| Stat | UTSA | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#43 | +0.12#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#90 | +0.10#99 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#35 | 46.0%#42 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#101 | 44.0%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#112 | 11.2%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.7%#9 | 15.5%#128 |
| Havoc rate | 9.4%#134 | 11.0%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#76 | 8.8%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.05#81 | 3.65#107 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96#81 | 4.46#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#27 | own 25#129 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#56 | own 34#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#101 | 60.8#106 |
| Stat | UTSA | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#15 | +0.21#14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#66 | -0.14#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#118 | +0.13#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#70 | +0.06#80 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.7%#14 | 50.9%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2%#82 | 31.5%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#86 | 11.5%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7%#116 | 27.3%#103 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#121 | 33.8%#111 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4%#128 | 39.6%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3%#108 | 46.2%#123 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#105 | 55.6%#99 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#59 | 66.7%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTSA schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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