Matchup analysis
Our model projects UTSA 38, North Texas 36 at Alamodome in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: UTSA wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 74 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
North Texas is 5-2 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43.1 and allowing 30.6 points per game (+12.5 per game). UTSA is 7-1 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) against UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st). UTSA's strong offense (36th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Texas's below-average defense (116th); that mismatch is where most of UTSA's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 20 and UTSA by 25 about 80% of the time.
UTSA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UTSA by about 0.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Texas vs UTSA: stat comparison
| Stat | North Texas | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.1#2 | 33.5#39 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6#116 | 26.0#91 |
| Yards per play | 7.66#4 | 6.19#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.11#102 | 5.98#92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 189.9#45 | 189.5#46 |
| Net passing yards per game | 345.1#3 | 223.8#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.1#111 | 194.4#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.7#75 | 217.5#92 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#65 | 0.50#26 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#78 | 0.88#64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#86 | 1.13#129 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#13 | 1.25#31 |
| Stat | North Texas | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.33#1 | +0.17#36 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16#121 | +0.12#109 |
| Success rate | 50.6%#8 | 46.6%#36 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#113 | 40.9%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.7%#3 | 12.2%#81 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#106 | 8.6%#9 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#120 | 10.1%#136 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.9%#11 | 12.1%#43 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.81#21 | 4.18#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.43#116 | 3.92#82 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#60 | own 33#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#128 | own 27#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#26 | 66.8#64 |
| Stat | North Texas | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#45 | +0.21#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.51#1 | +0.12#63 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.11#107 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#132 | +0.13#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#82 | 52.1%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 56.8%#2 | 41.5%#70 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#77 | 17.7%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1%#28 | 29.9%#93 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#83 | 31.2%#93 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#19 | 42.3%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%#56 | 39.5%#81 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.4%#15 | 59.5%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.8%#116 | 57.6%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · UTSA schedule · all Week 11 projections
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