Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas State 37, Utah State 24.1 at UFCU Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Texas State wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.9 points and 61 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Utah State is 2-4, scoring 14.5 and allowing 23.5 points per game (-9 per game). Texas State is 3-3, scoring 40 and allowing 32.2 points per game (+7.8 per game).
Utah State's below-average offense (111th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21 points against an average defense) meets Texas State's below-average defense (103rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Utah State puts up. Texas State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th); that mismatch is where most of Texas State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 10 and Texas State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas State by about 10.8. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Utah State 17, Texas State 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.9 points and the total by 24.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah State / Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -14.5 | 59.5 | +460 / -650 |
| Opening line | Texas State -9.5 | 59.5 | +270 / -345 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -14.5 | 58.5 | +455 / -625 |
| FanDuel | Texas State -14.5 | 59.5 | +460 / -650 |
| BetRivers | Texas State -14.5 | 60.5 | +390 / -560 |
| BetMGM | Texas State -14.5 | 59.5 | +475 / -650 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas State -13 | 61.0 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -14.5 | 59.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -14.5 | 59.6 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas State win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Texas State -12.9 · market Texas State -14.5 · difference -1.6 pts (Texas State view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 59.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah State 24.1, Texas State 37.0 | Texas State 80%right winner | 9.9 | 24.0 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Utah State 17, Texas State 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah State vs Texas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#36 | 36.5#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.7#90 | 29.0#95 |
| Yards per play | 6.11#47 | 6.75#18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.80#68 | 5.83#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.1#62 | 234.8#9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8#63 | 259.7#32 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 184.5#99 | 186.0#102 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.6#119 | 232.2#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.69#13 | 1.31#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#65 | 0.85#93 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#51 | 1.85#81 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.23#127 | 2.15#93 |
| Stat | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#52 | +0.13#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#73 | +0.01#67 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#86 | 46.4%#23 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#79 | 40.8%#60 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#19 | 13.7%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#51 | 13.4%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#34 | 14.0%#28 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4%#126 | 10.2%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.52#18 | 4.32#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69#47 | 4.33#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#94 | own 29#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#69 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1#69 | 73.3#7 |
| Stat | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#36 | +0.14#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#72 | +0.11#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#95 | -0.06#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#56 | +0.07#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#79 | 45.1%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 39.6%#90 | 45.7%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2%#92 | 16.7%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#50 | 38.4%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.2%#103 | 32.8%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.5%#105 | 46.2%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#88 | 42.4%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9%#35 | 62.3%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4%#24 | 66.7%#110 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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