Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 35.1, Boise State 21 at Autzen Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Oregon wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.1 points and 56 combined points.
Boise State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Oregon has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) meets Oregon's elite defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Boise State puts up. Oregon's elite offense (8th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Boise State's strong defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Oregon's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 8 and Oregon by 37 about 80% of the time.
Oregon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon by about 12. The game is on CBS.
Result: Boise State 27, Oregon 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Boise State / Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -24.5 → Oregon -24.75 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +1200 / -3050 |
| Bovada | Oregon -24.5 → Oregon -25 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +1100 / -3300 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -24.5 | 53.5 | +1300 / -2800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -14 | 56.0 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -25 | 52.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -23 | 53.3 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -14.1 · market Oregon -24.75 · difference -10.6 pts (Oregon view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 52.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 10.6 pts more toward Boise State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Boise State 21.0, Oregon 35.1 | Oregon 82%right winner | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| New formula | Boise State 13.4, Oregon 45.3 | Oregon 97%right winner | 25.0 | 2.3 |
Final: Boise State 27, Oregon 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Boise State vs Oregon: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#47 | 36.9#11 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#62 | 17.9#12 |
| Yards per play | 5.99#61 | 7.13#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71#60 | 4.66#5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.1#33 | 204.7#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.7#53 | 252.1#43 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.2#85 | 129.9#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 179.6#18 | 155.5#4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36#111 | 0.93#54 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#25 | 1.27#40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.93#71 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79#73 | 1.13#14 |
| Stat | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#61 | +0.11#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#48 | -0.07#24 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#87 | 48.5%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.3%#14 | 35.8%#12 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#88 | 14.3%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#94 | 8.2%#3 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#55 | 14.3%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#44 | 9.6%#12 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.00#68 | 4.39#27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.49#124 | 4.14#101 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#36 | own 32#17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 28#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.6#11 | 64.1#97 |
| Stat | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#47 | +0.07#40 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#80 | +0.16#25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#121 | -0.06#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#19 | -0.08#31 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#83 | 48.3%#17 |
| Passing success rate | 40.2%#83 | 48.6%#10 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#36 | 16.5%#40 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#77 | 32.0%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1%#46 | 27.5%#33 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3%#28 | 47.0%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#24 | 39.3%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#27 | 69.6%#25 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.1%#132 | 74.3%#128 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boise State schedule · Oregon schedule · all Week 1 projections
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