Matchup analysis
Our model projects Boise State 41, San Diego State 17 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Boise State wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.5 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
San Diego State is 3-5 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 36.1 points per game (-9.6 per game). Boise State (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game).
Boise State's strong defense (27th) should limit San Diego State's below-average offense (97th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's below-average defense (113th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 2 and Boise State by 47 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boise State by about 22.4. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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San Diego State vs Boise State: stat comparison
| Stat | San Diego State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5#86 | 34.4#37 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1#133 | 20.6#39 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#101 | 6.39#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.07#97 | 6.31#117 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6#95 | 242.0#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.5#108 | 202.9#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 190.8#114 | 115.3#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 276.8#134 | 244.3#115 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#86 | 0.14#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#85 | 0.86#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#69 | 2.57#32 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#30 | 0.86#12 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00#115 | +0.19#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#110 | +0.05#72 |
| Success rate | 37.1%#128 | 47.3%#29 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3%#135 | 37.0%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#103 | 12.0%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#49 | 13.0%#97 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#130 | 16.7%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5%#104 | 8.2%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.07#73 | 4.78#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.37#111 | 3.44#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#69 | own 25#137 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#122 | own 29#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0#115 | 69.6#29 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#94 | +0.17#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#118 | +0.22#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#102 | +0.01#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#104 | +0.08#84 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2%#112 | 48.2%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 34.6%#127 | 45.9%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0%#114 | 12.0%#8 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4%#118 | 39.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.2%#127 | 30.8%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7%#121 | 50.0%#18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.1%#128 | 29.1%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.4%#51 | 63.0%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6%#114 | 55.0%#46 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego State schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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