Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 28.5, Fresno State 21.6 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Boise State wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Boise State (No. 23) is 4-1, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game). Fresno State is 4-1, scoring 27.8 and allowing 16.4 points per game (+11.4 per game).
Boise State's strong offense (23rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Fresno State's strong defense (41st); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from. Expect Fresno State to find it hard going: Boise State's strong defense (21st) outranks Fresno State's below-average offense (85th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 29 and Fresno State by 16 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Boise State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Boise State / Fresno State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -6.5 → Boise State -9 | 48.5 | -277.5 / +227.5 |
| Bovada | Boise State -6.5 → Boise State -9.5 | 48.5 | -245 / +205 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -6.5 → Boise State -8.5 | 48.5 | -310 / +250 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fresno State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -7 | 50.1 | 33% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -9 | 48.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -8.5 | 49.5 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fresno State win probability
- model 33% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -6.9 · market Boise State -9 · difference +2.1 pts (Fresno State view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 48.5 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Boise State 28.5, Fresno State 21.6 | Boise State 67%right winner | 0.1 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Boise State 29.1, Fresno State 19.4 | Boise State 74%right winner | 2.7 | 20.4 |
Final: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Boise State vs Fresno State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.4#50 | 27.8#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.6#50 | 16.4#27 |
| Yards per play | 6.33#59 | 6.07#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.96#132 | 5.83#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 232.4#19 | 160.2#85 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.6#89 | 211.2#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.0#42 | 162.0#82 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 254.8#121 | 212.0#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#14 | 0.40#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#64 | 2.00#8 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#48 | 2.60#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#43 | 1.00#33 |
| Stat | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#43 | +0.08#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#66 | -0.03#38 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#22 | 41.2%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4%#19 | 40.9%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#92 | 13.5%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.8%#130 | 11.5%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 18.1%#9 | 15.6%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 7.8%#1 | 13.7%#85 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.66#37 | 3.80#94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.15#19 | 3.18#20 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 36#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#86 | own 22#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#38 | 61.2#110 |
| Stat | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#36 | -0.03#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#48 | +0.19#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#46 | +0.07#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#77 | -0.12#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#19 | 33.8%#130 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#41 | 46.2%#43 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#30 | 24.7%#135 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9%#12 | 34.3%#50 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.8%#43 | 27.8%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.2%#15 | 35.9%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#4 | 34.9%#42 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#75 | 47.8%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.7%#25 | 51.3%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boise State schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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