Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 34.2, Utah State 16.5 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Boise State wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Utah State is 1-3, scoring 13 and allowing 22 points per game (-9 per game). Boise State (No. 22) is 3-1, scoring 33.8 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+12.5 per game).
Expect Utah State to find it hard going: Boise State's strong defense (18th) outranks Utah State's below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense). Boise State's strong offense (23rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 5 and Boise State by 40 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boise State by about 15.6. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Utah State 18, Boise State 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah State / Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -20.25 → Boise State -19.5 | 49.75 → 51 | +800 / -1425 |
| Bovada | Boise State -20 → Boise State -19.5 | 50 → 51.5 | +750 / -1400 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -20.5 → Boise State -19.5 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +850 / -1450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boise State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -17.5 | 50.6 | 88% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -19.5 | 51.0 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -19.5 | 51.7 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boise State win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -17.7 · market Boise State -19.5 · difference -1.8 pts (Boise State view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 51 · difference -0.4
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah State 16.5, Boise State 34.2 | Boise State 88%right winner | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Utah State 14.7, Boise State 34.8 | Boise State 91%right winner | 1.2 | 5.5 |
Final: Utah State 18, Boise State 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah State vs Boise State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.0#136 | 33.8#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#63 | 21.3#57 |
| Yards per play | 5.52#110 | 6.20#70 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43#71 | 7.13#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.0#113 | 242.8#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.8#75 | 198.8#100 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.8#80 | 112.3#28 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.3#111 | 276.3#132 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.50#138 | 0.00#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#90 | 1.00#68 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25#110 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75#120 | 1.25#53 |
| Stat | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13#136 | +0.17#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#49 | +0.03#66 |
| Success rate | 36.3%#129 | 49.3%#22 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0%#78 | 36.5%#29 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#105 | 12.5%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.2%#14 | 15.3%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#115 | 16.7%#23 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5%#132 | 7.7%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.00#138 | 4.65#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12#20 | 3.20#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#54 | own 25#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#89 | own 31#99 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#74 | 71.3#21 |
| Stat | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#132 | +0.20#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#128 | +0.13#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#68 | -0.11#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#47 | +0.13#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.6%#117 | 52.5%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 35.1%#123 | 44.7%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#120 | 14.8%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.4%#39 | 38.9%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1%#68 | 28.4%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8%#70 | 50.0%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7%#98 | 23.3%#3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.5%#126 | 66.7%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.7%#14 | 50.0%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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