Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 35.7, Washington State 18.1 at Martin Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Boise State wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.6 points and 53.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Boise State (No. 21) is 5-1, scoring 35 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+12.7 per game). Washington State is 1-6, scoring 20.1 and allowing 27.1 points per game (-7 per game).
Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Washington State's below-average defense (91st); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from. Expect Washington State to find it hard going: Boise State's strong defense (27th) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 40 and Washington State by 5 about 80% of the time.
Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Boise State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Boise State 31, Washington State 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 12.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Boise State / Washington State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -14.5 | 52.5 | -670 / +475 |
| Opening line | Boise State -16.5 | 50.5 | -1000 / +640 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -14.5 | 52.5 | -625 / +455 |
| FanDuel | Boise State -14.5 | 52.5 | -670 / +470 |
| BetRivers | Boise State -14.5 | 51.5 | -715 / +475 |
| BetMGM | Boise State -15 | 52.5 | -700 / +525 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -17.5 | 53.8 | 12% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -14.5 | 52.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -15 | 53.2 | 15% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington State win probability
- model 12% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -17.6 · market Boise State -14.5 · difference -3.1 pts (Washington State view)
- Total
- model 53.8 · market 52.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Boise State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Boise State 35.7, Washington State 18.1 | Boise State 88%right winner | 3.4 | 12.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Boise State 31, Washington State 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Boise State vs Washington State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Boise State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#47 | 22.5#105 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#62 | 20.2#26 |
| Yards per play | 5.99#61 | 5.59#93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71#60 | 5.22#27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.1#33 | 140.8#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.7#53 | 224.2#72 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.2#85 | 144.1#38 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 179.6#18 | 167.3#6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36#111 | 1.69#132 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#25 | 0.92#81 |
| Sacks per game | 1.93#71 | 2.31#41 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79#73 | 1.69#59 |
| Stat | Boise State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#61 | -0.05#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#48 | -0.06#36 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#87 | 42.1%#74 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.3%#14 | 40.4%#53 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#88 | 12.4%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#94 | 11.5%#48 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#55 | 12.9%#60 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#44 | 12.4%#80 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.00#68 | 4.06#55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.49#124 | 3.49#29 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#36 | own 29#92 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 31#102 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.6#11 | 65.3#80 |
| Stat | Boise State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#47 | -0.10#129 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#80 | -0.01#86 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#121 | -0.01#63 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#19 | -0.11#28 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#83 | 43.4%#65 |
| Passing success rate | 40.2%#83 | 40.8%#70 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#36 | 20.7%#106 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#77 | 27.3%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1%#46 | 23.1%#6 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3%#28 | 40.3%#79 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#24 | 35.2%#21 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#27 | 59.5%#76 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 76.1%#132 | 63.3%#92 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boise State schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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