Matchup analysis
Our model projects Boise State 35, Oregon State 25 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Boise State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 60.1 combined points.
Oregon State is 5-2 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 42.7 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+19.6 per game). Boise State (No. 20) is 6-1 against the 51st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 20.6 points per game (+13.8 per game).
Oregon State's strong offense (34th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) meets Boise State's strong defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oregon State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Boise State's strong offense (16th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) against Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon State by 12 and Boise State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boise State by about 8.7. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Oregon State vs Boise State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oregon State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.7#4 | 34.4#37 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1#62 | 20.6#39 |
| Yards per play | 7.35#7 | 6.39#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.32#51 | 6.31#117 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.1#90 | 242.0#8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 381.4#1 | 202.9#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.6#79 | 115.3#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.4#55 | 244.3#115 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#20 | 0.14#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#37 | 0.86#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#31 | 2.57#32 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#36 | 0.86#12 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#12 | +0.19#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#87 | +0.05#72 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#16 | 47.3%#29 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#50 | 37.0%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#20 | 12.0%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#27 | 13.0%#97 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#85 | 16.7%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3%#15 | 8.2%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#19 | 4.78#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.78#64 | 3.44#37 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#100 | own 25#137 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#112 | own 29#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.1#7 | 69.6#29 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#50 | +0.17#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#16 | +0.22#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#99 | +0.01#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.08#84 |
| Rushing success rate | 55.0%#1 | 48.2%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 48.3%#23 | 45.9%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#18 | 12.0%#8 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6%#30 | 39.6%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.8%#60 | 30.8%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.3%#21 | 50.0%#18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4%#66 | 29.1%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.9%#9 | 63.0%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.6%#30 | 55.0%#46 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon State schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 11 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.