Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 27.7, Memphis 26.2 at Albertsons Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Boise State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Memphis is 2-0, scoring 34.5 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+12 per game). Boise State is 0-1, scoring 27 and allowing 34 points per game (-7 per game).
Expect Memphis to find it hard going: Boise State's strong defense (29th) outranks Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28 points against an average defense). Boise State's strong offense (24th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 21 and Boise State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Boise State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Memphis would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Memphis 20, Boise State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.5 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Memphis / Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -7 → Boise State -9.25 | 55.5 → 54.5 | +275 / -345 |
| Bovada | Boise State -7.5 → Boise State -9 | 55.5 → 54.5 | +265 / -330 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -6.5 → Boise State -9.5 | 54.5 | +285 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boise State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -1.5 | 53.9 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -9.5 | 54.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -8 | 54.9 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boise State win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -21 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -1.5 · market Boise State -9.25 · difference -7.7 pts (Boise State view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 54.5 · difference -0.6
Model margin is 7.7 pts more toward Memphis than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Memphis 26.2, Boise State 27.7 | Boise State 54%right winner | 16.5 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Memphis 20.4, Boise State 37.0 | Boise State 84%right winner | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Final: Memphis 20, Boise State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Memphis vs Boise State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Memphis | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.5#25 | 29.9#47 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.2#52 | 24.1#62 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#31 | 5.99#61 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77#66 | 5.71#60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.8#21 | 192.1#33 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6#71 | 242.7#53 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 151.1#50 | 172.2#85 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.4#96 | 179.6#18 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.85#38 | 1.36#111 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#48 | 1.43#25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.62#100 | 1.93#71 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.62#116 | 1.79#73 |
| Stat | Memphis | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#14 | +0.04#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.00#62 | -0.02#48 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#34 | 41.4%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#49 | 36.3%#14 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#39 | 11.8%#88 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#70 | 13.1%#94 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#30 | 13.1%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#56 | 11.2%#44 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.36#29 | 4.00#68 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.01#87 | 4.49#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 31#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#13 | own 29#64 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9#49 | 72.6#11 |
| Stat | Memphis | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.26#2 | +0.06#47 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#58 | +0.01#80 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#25 | +0.10#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#88 | -0.15#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.5%#11 | 42.5%#83 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#71 | 40.2%#83 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9%#85 | 16.2%#36 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#40 | 30.1%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#57 | 28.1%#46 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.3%#53 | 46.3%#28 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.2%#90 | 35.5%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.4%#13 | 69.2%#27 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.2%#90 | 76.1%#132 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Memphis schedule · Boise State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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