Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boise State 27.1, Western Michigan 25.8 at Waldo Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Boise State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Boise State is 2-1, scoring 34.3 and allowing 26 points per game (+8.3 per game). Western Michigan is 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 16 points per game (+13.7 per game).
Boise State's strong offense (26th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th); that mismatch is where most of Boise State's projected points come from. Expect Western Michigan to find it hard going: Boise State's strong defense (33rd) outranks Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (60th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boise State by 24 and Western Michigan by 21 about 80% of the time.
Western Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Boise State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.7 points and the total by 13.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Boise State / Western Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boise State -7.25 → Boise State -8.5 | 48 → 50.5 | -289 / +235 |
| DraftKings | Boise State -7.5 → Boise State -8.5 | 47.5 → 50.5 | -298 / +240 |
| Bovada | Boise State -7 → Boise State -8.5 | 48.5 → 50.5 | -280 / +230 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boise State -1.5 | 52.9 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Boise State -8.5 | 50.5 | 29% |
| Blended projection | Boise State -7.5 | 51.4 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Michigan win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 29% · difference +18 pts
- Margin
- model Boise State -1.3 · market Boise State -8.5 · difference +7.2 pts (Western Michigan view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 50.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 7.2 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Boise State 27.1, Western Michigan 25.8 | Boise State 53%right winner | 23.7 | 13.9 |
| New formula | Boise State 28.0, Western Michigan 25.2 | Boise State 57%right winner | 22.2 | 14.2 |
Final: Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Boise State vs Western Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Boise State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.3#58 | 29.7#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#100 | 16.0#33 |
| Yards per play | 6.31#69 | 5.23#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.84#136 | 5.10#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 266.0#13 | 181.3#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.0#95 | 143.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.3#31 | 146.3#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 327.0#135 | 186.7#57 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#14 | 0.00#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#74 | 0.33#128 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#87 | 1.00#125 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#88 | 1.67#90 |
| Stat | Boise State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#47 | +0.07#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#102 | +0.05#80 |
| Success rate | 48.6%#25 | 40.9%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#25 | 41.5%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#99 | 9.7%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.2%#130 | 9.3%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 17.4%#19 | 9.9%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6%#9 | 10.6%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#54 | 5.05#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.56#47 | 3.84#68 |
| Average starting field position | own 24#137 | own 33#37 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#108 | own 25#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.3#16 | 62.0#101 |
| Stat | Boise State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#13 | +0.12#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#85 | -0.01#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.16#12 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27#122 | +0.06#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.8%#15 | 41.7%#95 |
| Passing success rate | 43.0%#76 | 37.5%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.8%#12 | 13.1%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#57 | 30.6%#81 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6%#50 | 33.0%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9%#70 | 47.5%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#10 | 37.5%#67 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#48 | 70.6%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.5%#26 | 62.1%#83 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boise State schedule · Western Michigan schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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