Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 35.1, Southern Illinois 24.1 at The DakotaDome in Week 6. That is a solid edge: South Dakota wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 59.2 combined points.
Southern Illinois is 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+0.8 per game). South Dakota is 4-2, scoring 39 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+11.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Illinois by 12 and South Dakota by 34 about 80% of the time.
South Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Dakota by about 8.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Illinois 10, South Dakota 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10 points and the total by 18.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Illinois / South Dakota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota -10.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +262 / -348 |
| DraftKings | South Dakota -10.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +262 / -348 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Dakota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota -11 | 59.2 | 76% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota -10.5 | 57.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota -10.5 | 57.8 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Dakota win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model South Dakota -11 · market South Dakota -10.5 · difference +0.5 pts (South Dakota view)
- Total
- model 59.2 · market 57.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward South Dakota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Illinois 24.1, South Dakota 35.1 | South Dakota 76%right winner | 10.0 | 18.2 |
| New formula | Southern Illinois 24.7, South Dakota 33.6 | South Dakota 72%right winner | 12.1 | 17.3 |
Final: Southern Illinois 10, South Dakota 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Illinois vs South Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Illinois | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.4 | 27.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 26.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.96 | 6.65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.3 | 198.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.9 | 201.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.4 | 153.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.2 | 213.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.86 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 0.93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 47.3% | 46.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 44.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 14.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 8.9% | 11.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 0.95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65 | 1.57 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 60.1 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | South Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.4% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5% | 33.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.0% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8% | 45.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.0% | 17.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.0% | 25.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · South Dakota schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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