Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 45, Murray State 14.5 at Roy Stewart Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: South Dakota wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.5 points and 59.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
South Dakota is 5-2, scoring 37.9 and allowing 25 points per game (+12.9 per game). Murray State is 1-5, scoring 14.8 and allowing 40.7 points per game (-25.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota by 53 and South Dakota by 8 about 80% of the time.
Murray State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Dakota 48, Murray State 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 8.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota / Murray State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota -28.5 | 61.5 → 60.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | South Dakota -28.5 | 61.5 → 60.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Murray State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota -30.5 | 59.4 | 2% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota -28.5 | 60.5 | 3% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota -29 | 60.4 | 2% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Murray State win probability
- model 2% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model South Dakota -30.5 · market South Dakota -28.5 · difference -2.0 pts (Murray State view)
- Total
- model 59.4 · market 60.5 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward South Dakota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota 45.0, Murray State 14.5 | South Dakota 98%right winner | 2.5 | 8.6 |
| New formula | South Dakota 42.7, Murray State 15.8 | South Dakota 96%right winner | 1.0 | 9.5 |
Final: South Dakota 48, Murray State 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota vs Murray State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Dakota | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.1 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 38.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.65 | 5.45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.0 | 155.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.5 | 232.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.6 | 290.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.7 | 242.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 1.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.07 | 1.73 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.21 |
| Success rate | 46.0% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 53.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6% | 11.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 15.0% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.95 | 2.40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.57 | 3.34 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1 | 71.3 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 41.2% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 42.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 42.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 55.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 17.9% | 48.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 25.9% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota schedule · Murray State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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