Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota 29.1, Northern Colorado 23.3 at Nottingham Field in Week 1. That is a lean: South Dakota wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Dakota is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 20 points per game (+39 per game). Northern Colorado is 0-1, scoring 29 and allowing 30 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota by 28 and Northern Colorado by 17 about 80% of the time.
Northern Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Dakota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Dakota 38, Northern Colorado 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.2 points and the total by 8.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota / Northern Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota -20.5 | 56.5 | -2100 / +920 |
| DraftKings | South Dakota -20.5 | 56.5 | -2100 / +920 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota -6 | 52.4 | 35% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota -20.5 | 56.5 | 9% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota -18 | 56.6 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Colorado win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 9% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model South Dakota -5.8 · market South Dakota -20.5 · difference +14.7 pts (Northern Colorado view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 56.5 · difference -4.1
Model margin is 14.7 pts more toward Northern Colorado than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota 29.1, Northern Colorado 23.3 | South Dakota 65%right winner | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| New formula | South Dakota 36.8, Northern Colorado 19.1 | South Dakota 86%right winner | 2.8 | 5.1 |
Final: South Dakota 38, Northern Colorado 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota vs Northern Colorado: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Dakota | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.1 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 28.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.65 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.0 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.5 | 243.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.6 | 215.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.7 | 219.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.07 | 0.83 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 46.0% | 39.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.95 | 3.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.57 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1 | 66.3 |
| Stat | South Dakota | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 40.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 17.9% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 25.9% | 49.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota schedule · Northern Colorado schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.