Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Youngstown State 34, Southern Illinois 31.6 at Saluki Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Youngstown State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 65.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Youngstown State is 3-2, scoring 38.6 and allowing 24.6 points per game (+14 per game). Southern Illinois is 3-2, scoring 28.6 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+3.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Youngstown State by 25 and Southern Illinois by 20 about 80% of the time.
Southern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Youngstown State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Youngstown State 28, Southern Illinois 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.6 points and the total by 21.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Youngstown State / Southern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Youngstown State -3.5 → Youngstown State -4 | 62.5 → 64.5 | -185 / +148 |
| DraftKings | Youngstown State -3.5 → Youngstown State -4 | 62.5 → 64.5 | -185 / +148 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Youngstown State -2.5 | 65.5 | 44% |
| Market consensus | Youngstown State -4 | 64.5 | 38% |
| Blended projection | Youngstown State -4 | 64.2 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Illinois win probability
- model 44% · market (no-vig) 38% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Youngstown State -2.4 · market Youngstown State -4 · difference +1.6 pts (Southern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 65.5 · market 64.5 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Southern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Youngstown State 34.0, Southern Illinois 31.6 | Youngstown State 56%right winner | 9.6 | 21.5 |
| New formula | Youngstown State 32.3, Southern Illinois 31.2 | Youngstown State 53%right winner | 11.0 | 19.5 |
Final: Youngstown State 28, Southern Illinois 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Youngstown State vs Southern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Youngstown State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.88 | 6.96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.57 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 193.1 | 215.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 237.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.5 | 202.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.0 | 211.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 48.2% | 47.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.80 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.29 | 3.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 65.1 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.5% | 54.4% |
| Passing success rate | 49.3% | 43.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.2% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4% | 34.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 46.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.3% | 64.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2% | 53.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Youngstown State schedule · Southern Illinois schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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