Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Youngstown State 33.8, Duquesne 24.5 at Stambaugh Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Youngstown State wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.3 points and 58.3 combined points.
Duquesne is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 34 points per game (-34 per game). Youngstown State is 1-1, scoring 28 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+0.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duquesne by 13 and Youngstown State by 32 about 80% of the time.
Youngstown State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Youngstown State by about 7.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Duquesne 13, Youngstown State 70. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 47.7 points and the total by 24.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duquesne / Youngstown State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Youngstown State -22.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +980 / -2500 |
| DraftKings | Youngstown State -22.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +980 / -2500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Youngstown State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Youngstown State -9.5 | 58.3 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Youngstown State -22.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Youngstown State -20.5 | 55.2 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Youngstown State win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Youngstown State -9.3 · market Youngstown State -22.5 · difference -13.2 pts (Youngstown State view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 54.5 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 13.2 pts more toward Duquesne than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duquesne 24.5, Youngstown State 33.8 | Youngstown State 73%right winner | 47.7 | 24.7 |
| New formula | Duquesne 24.7, Youngstown State 37.4 | Youngstown State 78%right winner | 44.3 | 20.9 |
Final: Duquesne 13, Youngstown State 70. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duquesne vs Youngstown State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Duquesne | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 36.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.20 | 6.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51 | 6.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.6 | 193.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.9 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.5 | 160.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.1 | 261.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 42.8% | 48.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 9.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 2.80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 3.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Youngstown State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.25 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3% | 49.5% |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 49.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 37.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.6% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.8% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.9% | 46.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duquesne schedule · Youngstown State schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.