Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kentucky 43.9, Youngstown State 17 at Kroger Field in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Kentucky wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.8 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Youngstown State is 1-0, scoring 43 and allowing 10 points per game (+33 per game). Kentucky has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Youngstown State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Kentucky's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky by 4 and Kentucky by 49 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kentucky by about 24.7. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Youngstown State 13, Kentucky 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.2 points and the total by 2.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Youngstown State / Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kentucky -23.25 → Kentucky -22.25 | 62.5 → 62 | +950 / -1900 |
| Bovada | Kentucky -23 → Kentucky -22 | 62.5 | +1000 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | Kentucky -23.5 → Kentucky -22.5 | 62.5 → 61.5 | +900 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kentucky -27 | 60.9 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Kentucky -22.5 | 62.0 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Kentucky -23 | 61.8 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kentucky win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Kentucky -26.8 · market Kentucky -22.25 · difference +4.6 pts (Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 62 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 4.6 pts more toward Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Youngstown State 17.0, Kentucky 43.9 | Kentucky 96%right winner | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| New formula | Youngstown State 19.2, Kentucky 40.4 | Kentucky 89%right winner | 10.7 | 1.6 |
Final: Youngstown State 13, Kentucky 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Youngstown State vs Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Youngstown State | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.6 | 23.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 26.4#75 |
| Yards per play | 6.88 | 5.56#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.57 | 5.96#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 193.1 | 155.8#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 211.9#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.5 | 147.6#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.0 | 244.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.58 | 1.33#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.17#53 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83 | 2.08#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 2.25#102 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.03#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.02#80 |
| Success rate | 48.2% | 42.0%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 44.4%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 10.9%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 12.2%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 13.0%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4% | 11.7%#57 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.80 | 4.03#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.29 | 4.05#91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 66.2#67 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.04#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25 | -0.11#117 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.03#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.07#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.5% | 45.4%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 49.3% | 38.4%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 16.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.2% | 26.7%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4% | 30.5%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 41.7%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 42.3%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.3% | 66.7%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2% | 67.4%#113 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Youngstown State schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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