Matchup analysis
Our model projects Youngstown State 47, Murray State 17 at Roy Stewart Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Youngstown State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.5 points and 64.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Youngstown State is 6-2 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.1 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+16 per game). Murray State is 1-7 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.8 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-27 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Youngstown State by 52 and Youngstown State by 7 about 80% of the time.
Murray State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Youngstown State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Youngstown State vs Murray State: stat comparison
| Stat | Youngstown State | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.1 | 14.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 41.8 |
| Yards per play | 7.16 | 4.86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.88 | 6.32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 198.1 | 124.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.3 | 158.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.5 | 226.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.1 | 190.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.31 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 52.8% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 48.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.9% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 15.3% |
| Havoc rate | 16.9% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.21 | 1.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 2.46 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 58.3 |
| Stat | Youngstown State | Murray State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.34 | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.8% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 57.4% | 36.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 42.8% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2% | 33.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 57.6% | 31.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.3% | 18.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1% | 32.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Youngstown State schedule · Murray State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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