Matchup analysis
Our model projects Duquesne 36, Mercyhurst 21 at Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Duquesne wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.1 points and 56.9 combined points.
Mercyhurst is 1-7 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.6 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-21.2 per game). Duquesne is 3-4 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-6.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mercyhurst by 8 and Duquesne by 37 about 80% of the time.
Duquesne gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Duquesne by about 12.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Mercyhurst vs Duquesne: stat comparison
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.6 | 21.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.8 | 28.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.43 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.59 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 98.8 | 155.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 233.0 | 154.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 217.6 | 194.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.1 | 176.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 1.29 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4% | 44.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 14.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.76 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.31 | 3.71 |
| Average starting field position | opp 31 | opp 20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 23 | opp 18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 55.6 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | Duquesne |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.8% | 42.0% |
| Passing success rate | 36.8% | 33.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.6% | 32.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.3% | 34.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 39.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.5% | 64.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.6% | 62.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · Duquesne schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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