Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 44.3, Mercyhurst 3.4 at University Stadium (NM) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: New Mexico wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.9 points and 47.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Mercyhurst is 0-2, scoring 12 and allowing 47 points per game (-35 per game). New Mexico is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 7 points per game (+31 per game).
Mercyhurst plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why New Mexico's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 18 and New Mexico by 63 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico by about 38.8. The game is on MW+.
Result: Mercyhurst 7, New Mexico 70. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.1 points and the total by 29.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercyhurst / New Mexico) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -41 → New Mexico -42.25 | 52 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -40.5 → New Mexico -42.5 | 51.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | New Mexico -41.5 → New Mexico -42 | 52.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -41 | 47.6 | 100% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -42.5 | 54.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -42.5 | 54.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model New Mexico -40.9 · market New Mexico -42.25 · difference -1.4 pts (New Mexico view)
- Total
- model 47.6 · market 54.5 · difference -6.9
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Mercyhurst than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercyhurst 3.4, New Mexico 44.3 | New Mexico 100%right winner | 22.1 | 29.4 |
| New formula | Mercyhurst 7.8, New Mexico 45.9 | New Mexico 99%right winner | 24.9 | 23.3 |
Final: Mercyhurst 7, New Mexico 70. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercyhurst vs New Mexico: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8 | 27.1#73 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 22.3#46 |
| Yards per play | 5.28 | 6.06#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.13 | 5.50#46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.9 | 173.7#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8 | 210.9#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1 | 131.8#22 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.0 | 234.7#99 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.25#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 1.00#77 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 2.67#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.09 | 2.50#114 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.03#71 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.02#77 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 41.8%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 39.4%#43 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 12.7%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 10.4%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 12.5%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2% | 11.5%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.27 | 4.06#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.19#13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#96 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1 | 63.4#107 |
| Stat | Mercyhurst | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.02#73 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.03#69 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.04#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.08#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 42.9%#72 |
| Passing success rate | 39.4% | 40.8%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 14.5%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 30.7%#72 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 27.6%#37 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.2% | 39.3%#91 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 41.7%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.1% | 58.7%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 60.6%#73 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercyhurst schedule · New Mexico schedule · all Week 2 projections
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