Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mercyhurst 28.9, Glenville State 26.2 at Saxon Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Mercyhurst wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 55 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Glenville State is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 42 points per game (-35 per game). Mercyhurst is 0-3, scoring 10.3 and allowing 54.7 points per game (-44.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Glenville State by 20 and Mercyhurst by 25 about 80% of the time.
Mercyhurst gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mercyhurst by about 0.6.
Result: Glenville State 20, Mercyhurst 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.3 points and the total by 14.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Glenville State 26.2, Mercyhurst 28.9 | Mercyhurst 57%right winner | 26.3 | 14.0 |
| New formula | Glenville State 28.2, Mercyhurst 27.3 | Glenville State 52%wrong winner | 29.9 | 13.5 |
Final: Glenville State 20, Mercyhurst 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Glenville State schedule · Mercyhurst schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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