Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Long Island University 25.5, Wagner 19.8 at Hameline Field at Wagner College Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Long Island University wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Long Island University is 2-5, scoring 14.7 and allowing 29.4 points per game (-14.7 per game). Wagner is 1-5, scoring 12.5 and allowing 40.7 points per game (-28.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Long Island University by 28 and Wagner by 17 about 80% of the time.
Wagner gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Long Island University is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Long Island University 14, Wagner 9. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.7 points and the total by 22.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Long Island University / Wagner) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Long Island University -7 → Long Island University -6.5 | 41.5 → 39.5 | -259 / +201 |
| DraftKings | Long Island University -7 → Long Island University -6.5 | 41.5 → 39.5 | -259 / +201 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wagner win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Long Island University -5.5 | 45.3 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Long Island University -6.5 | 39.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Long Island University -6.5 | 41.5 | 33% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wagner win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Long Island University -5.7 · market Long Island University -6.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Wagner view)
- Total
- model 45.3 · market 39.5 · difference +5.8
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Wagner than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Long Island University 25.5, Wagner 19.8 | Long Island University 65%right winner | 0.7 | 22.3 |
| New formula | Long Island University 25.8, Wagner 20.7 | Long Island University 63%right winner | 0.0 | 23.5 |
Final: Long Island University 14, Wagner 9. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Long Island University vs Wagner: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Long Island University | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 24.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.32 | 4.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.60 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.2 | 199.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.6 | 95.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.7 | 189.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.4 | 210.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 39.2% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 9.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50 | 4.27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 67.5 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 42.0% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.4% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.9% | 25.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.6% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.4% | 64.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · Wagner schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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